YEMEN, A FORGOTTEN CONFLICT

Over
ten thousand victims, 32 thousand wounded, three million IDPs and
an impressive series of systematic human rights violations. Yemen
is presently a country split in three parts, each ruled by a
different entity: the Houthi rebels supported by ousted president
Ali Abdullah Saleh, a so-called “legitimate” president in exile,
Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, and AQIP, Al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula. Caught in the middle, the civilian population is
suffering under the blows of the warring parties.
The Saudis bomb civilian targets (refugee camps, hospitals and
schools included) and employ cluster bombs (banned under
international treaties) indiscriminately. They also adopt a
perverse tactic: they bomb a target, wait for rescue teams to
reach the location, and then bomb again. The Houthi rebellion
isn’t any better: they use human shields and forcibly recruit
child soldiers, that represent an estimated 30% of the fighters on
the ground. A similar behaviour can be found in the loyalist
troops of president Hadi.
A homeless population, forced to flee from one combat zone to the
next, without any health support as hospitals have become a
primary targets. Over 14 million people have no access to drinking
water and are at risk of famine because of the international
embargo on Yemen and of the Saudi bombing of transport
infrastructures and roads. The civilians are basically caught in a
trap: the Saudi desert to the north and an international naval
blockade to the south.
In the meantime, the poorest country in the Middle East is on the
verge of collapsing: almost half of all businesses have shut down,
the GDP has fallen 35-40% since the outbreak of the war. However,
international public opinion does not pay any attention to the
unfolding humanitarian catastrophe, its attention grabbed by other
crisis in the region: the civil war in Syria, the fight against
the ISIS, the Kurdish struggle, the US-Russia competition.
Who’s responsible
The conflict in Yemen has been fueled by a number of actors. The
main one is Saudi Arabia. The kingdom started the conflict to
hamper the growing Iranian influence in the country after Teheran
sided with the Houthi rebellion. The struggle for regional
dominance isn’t the only motivation that pushed the Saudis to
intervene. The new king Salman and especially the ruler’s son,
Mohammed, that aspires to become the heir apparent to the throne,
have pushed their country in the spotlight through an aggressive
foreign policy. However, since Saudi Arabia’s direct intervention
in the conflict in March 2015, the military success Riyadh was
yearning for has not materialized. In fact, the Saudis have
launched a war on Yemen a month after the Houthi rebels and
president Hadi had signed a peace agreement. The deal called for
the withdrawal of the Houthis from parts of Sana’a and the
formation of a government of national unity.
The US, UK and France are all supportive of the Saudi military
initiative. British and American officers station in the military
command centers that choose the targets to bomb. While the French
are flooding both the Saudis and the UAE with their weapons. The
US support is the price to pay for the “betrayal” of the
traditional Saudi ally in favor of a deal on Iran’s nuclear
programme. The anglo-american influence has not prevented the war
from going astray. They simply looked the other way when
international NGOs condemned the systematic human rights
violations. The fresh British Secretary of State, Boris Johnson,
has done even better than American mutism: he denied that abuses
ever took place. The Saudi’s lack of familiarity with the concept
of human rights completed the bleak picture.

John Kerry
Negotiations without a solution
There have been a series of talks to put an end to the conflict.
The latest round was held in Kuwait and failed miserably in August
after three months of futile discussions. Immediately after their
collapse the bombings resumed. During the latest visit by the US
Secretary of State, John Kerry, in Riyadh a new proposal emerged:
cessation of hostilities, withdrawal of the Houthis from the
Yemeni capital, which they conquered in September 2014, and the
handing over of all their artillery and weapons. In other words:
you must surrender. This is not a proposition, it’s a joke.
With the support of once president Saleh, the Houthis have set up
a “Supreme political council” to rule the country; on the other
end, the “legitimate” president Hadi, whose government is in
exile, claims that he can rule the country thanks to the abundant
oil revenues. None of the parties seems ready for or willing to
compromise. The rebels are using the Parliament, whose mandate
expired in 2009, to seek legitimacy, whilst Hadi is struggling to
make his way back to the capital with Saudi military muscle. In
the meantime, the AQAP terrorists are exploiting the civil war to
strengthen and to exercise their control over some areas in Yemen,
and especially in Hadhramaut on the border with Oman.
The conflict in Yemen has also taken its toll on Saudi finances.
The growing budget deficit and the collapse of oil prices has led
to a 20% cut to the salaries of Saudi public employees. On the
opposite front, the Yemenis are used to living in poverty and know
how to manage their subsistence economy and supply themselves on
the black market. In fact, the Houthis are even financing their
war though the levies they are imposing on the population. Oil
exports, which used to represent roughly 50% of the country’s
State income, have now been blocked. While billions of dollars
will be necessary to rebuild a country torn apart by the conflict.
That is, when a peace deal is signed.
Yet, there seems to be no end in sight for this conflict. Military
operations have stalled. The Saudi army and its over 100 thousand
troops benefit from US logistical support and are assisted by
units coming from several other countries: a thousand Egyptians,
800/900 Sudanese, a thousand from Qatar, a brigade provided by the
UAE, plus a couple of thousand Colombian mercenaries, an artillery
battalion from Kuwait, 300 from Bahrein and 2.100 soldiers from
Senegal. These figures don’t account for the Yemeni army soldiers
loyal to Hadi. And these are just the troops on the ground, to
which we have to add around 100 Saudi fighter jets, plus airplanes
from other nations (Jordan, Egypt, UAE, Bahrein, Morocco, Sudan,
Kuwait and Qatar). This massive display of force has not been
capable of defeating about 100 thousand Houthi rebels and the
remnants of troops loyal to former president Saleh. What is even
worse: the conflict has now spilled over into Saudi Arabia with
the sporadic raids by the Ansar Allah militias and the launch of
missiles.
We all know that the Houthis are receiving support from Iran and
are being trained by Hezbollah. A delegation of rebels has
recently visited Baghdad to seek, at least officially,
humanitarian support from the Iraqi Shia-dominated government.
This initiative can only further fuel the Shia-Sunni sectarian
divide that has spread across the Middle East. It’s not a
coincidence that it was also one of the main causes for the
outbreak of the war in Yemen.
The United States are trying, via the UN, to form a government of
national unity. The initiative is theoretically supported by both
the “legitimate” president and the rebels. However, the
disagreement is over the details of the deal. The Houthis will
never withdraw from Sana’a nor hand over their weapons without
anything in return. They want a federal system, greater
territorial autonomy, regardless of who is at the helm in the
capital. A regional structure was part of the negotiations that
failed in February 2014 and that eventually led to the Houthis
taking over Sana’a in September. Everyone was in favor of a
federalist Yemen. The rebels were because it allowed them to
maintain the control over the north of the country – and this is
basically what they are still demanding – and for similar reasons
the idea was also appreciated by the secessionists in the south.

Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi
An irreconcilable rift
This seems the only viable exit strategy for Yemen whom, since the
reunification in 1990, still bleeds from the wounds of a lengthy
North vs South conflict. The war has also highlighted once more
the role of the tribes. They are the true power-brokers in Yemen,
regardless of who the government is. This is why it doesn’t make
any sense to talk about “legitimate” or “illegitimate” rulers.
Take Ali Abdullah Saleh, for instance. He ruled North Yemen since
1978 and then unified Yemen until 2012, when he was forced to
relinquish power to his deputy, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. It is of
no importance that Saleh waged a war against the Houthis from 2004
until 2011 with Saudi support. After all, UN Resolution 2216 of
April 2015 – sponsored by the Gulf Cooperation Council, Saudi
Arabia and with US blessing – claims Hadi is the “legitimate”
president of a country that has never stumbled upon democracy.
This is why taking the UN Resolution as the basis for any future
negotiation will lead nowhere.
Saudi Arabia represents the main obstacle to peace, as it is
against any compromise between the Yemenis. Any concession to the
Houthis would also mean the enemy would control its southern
borders. The Saudis would also lose their face: the war in Yemen
has put the military credibility of the kingdom and the ambitions
of the king’s son, Mohammed bin Salman, at stake. Without a fair
deal both parties would end up as losers. The Houthis face similar
issues. The conflict has given them far more influence and power
than they ever dreamt of. They basically now rule over a third of
the country. And they have finally access to the State’s finances,
or what is left of them.
A solution must be found because, in the long term, no one will
benefit from this war. Not the US, who see their ally squander
resources in a useless conflict. Not Saudi Arabia, who’s actually
bleeding 6 billion dollars a month. Not the rebels, who don’t have
the capability to control such a vast extent of territory. Not the
civilian population, whom the UN High Commission for Refugees has
labeled as on the verge of a “humanitarian catastrophe”.