THE MERCENARIES THAT UPHOLD MONARCHIES IN THE PERSIAN GULF
Mohammed bin Salman
King
Salman’s Saudi Arabia is a country that, after decades of moderate
policies and diplomacy, has suddenly become aggressive and
belligerent. Pushed by his own son, the 30 year old Mohamed bin
Salman, who has replaced his cousin, Mohamed bin Nayef, as crown
prince, the Saudis want to lead Sunni Muslims against the Shia and
fight against terrorism. The conflicts they are waging are part of
that strategy, as are the creation of the so-called “Islamic
NATO”, the war in Yemen, the sanctions against Qatar and the
threats against Iran.
Hence the question: does Saudi Arabia, and its allies from the UAE
and Bahrain, have the military strength to wage all these
conflicts and win them?
The conflict in Yemen
The Saudi deployment of 150 thousand men and a hundred or so
fighter jets has strained the kingdom’s military capabilities and
produced little or no results. Yet, the Saudis are not alone, as
they rely on thousands of mercenaries. The first batch is made up
of Yemeni volunteers currently protecting the frontier between
Saudi Arabia and Yemen. They come face to face with the Houthi
rebels and are the ones suffering the most casualties in place of
an army not willing to fight. Poverty and decent wages are a good
enough reason to work for a well-off employer unlikely to
sacrifice his own life. Three thousand Yemenis have already lost
their lives fighting for the Saudis.
Then come the professionals from the private security companies
and who deal with the most dangerous tasks. Guns for hire from the
likes of Blackwater – whose name has now changed to Academi –
alongside mercenaries from Somalia, Sudan, Djibouti, Chechnya
willing to risk their lives for a few thousand dollars. The toll
stands at around 6 thousand contractors so far, although these are
just estimates because no official figures are available.
Most of Saudi Arabia’s military adventure in Yemen relies on
“external” aid. The US provide logistical support, refuel Saudi
fighter jets in mid-air and take care of the naval blockade in the
Red Sea. The British have a strong presence in the intelligence
sector. While a number of countries sell sophisticated weaponry to
the kingdom: USA, UK, France, Germany, Canada, China and Italy.
Furthermore, crown prince Mohamed bin Salman also relies on the
military aid from countries such as Pakistan, Senegal, Egypt,
Jordan and Morocco. It is difficult to draw a line to distinguish
whether these contributions are mercenaries paid by the Saudis or
by their countries of origin.
However, if we look at this large deployment of forces, the
massive presence of foreign volunteers and the technical
assistance from the West and compare it to the scarce results on
the ground against a badly equipped rag-tag rebel army, it is
legitimate to wonder what Saudi Arabia’s true military strength
is. Given this background, a future conflict against Iran could
never be fought without the help of some superpower as Saudi
Arabia seems to have overstated its military capabilities.
Members of Blackwater
The Emirates and the mercenaries
Most of the countries in the Persian Gulf rely on mercenaries. The
UAE, who shares the Saudis’ warmongering attitude, also rely on
Private Security Companies such as the heirs of Blackwater or
Global Enterprises to fight in their stead. The Emirates sent a
brigade of Latin American contractors in Yemen. Soldiers of
fortune from El Salvador, Panama, Chile and Colombia (chosen for
their experience against the FARC) have been sent to the frontline
by Abu Dhabi. Some 2 thousand men who are not on the official
death toll or accountable for the systematic violations of human
rights that regularly surface on the media. The United Arab
Emirates have also deployed hundreds of Eritreans. It is unclear
whether they are mercenaries or were sent in by Isaias Afewerki.
The only difference being who pays the price for their safety.
The UAE also need foreign manpower to deal with their security
back home. With a population of 9.2 million people, foreign
workers amount to 7.8 million. The demographic threat can only be
fought with the repression of any form of dissent, systematic
human rights violations and discrimination. This takes the form of
indiscriminate arrests, enforced disappearances, torture, kangaroo
courts and no freedom of association or of the press.
The intelligence agencies in the Emirates are flooded with British
experts, both as trainers and on the ground. The MI-6 feels at
home in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, as do the French from the DGSE and
the Americans from the CIA. Partnerships in the defense sector
rely on government-to-government deals with the UK and the US. The
Emirates purchase anglo-american weapons, French fighter jets and
hire British experts for cyber security. British and American
Private Security Companies carry out the dirty work on behalf of
the Emirates’ security forces.
The king of Bahrein Bin Isa al Khalifa
The other countries in the Gulf
Another country that relies on mercenaries is Bahrain, the Sunni
regime ruling over a Shia majority. In 2011, during the so-called
Arab Spring, the Emir al Khalifa survived the protests with the
help of troops from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In the long term,
the regime is trying to alter the country’s demographics, by
favoring the influx of Sunnis and giving them a passport. The same
goes for the security forces: while the intelligence agencies are
under the MI-6’s wing, several Pakistanis have been recruited
alongside Jordanians, Syrians and even Iraqis who used to work for
Saddam Hussein’s Mukhabarat.
The same can be said for Kuwait. With 4 million inhabitants, 2.3
million are expats coming from India, Egypt, Pakistan, Syrian,
Palestine-Jordan or Philippines, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. With
these demographics, there is no national army that can withstand a
threat without a foreign support. This is where the US have
stepped in, with the CIA training the local anti-terrorism
intelligence agency and also supplying weapons and training to the
air forces.
Idem in Oman, where the British control the security forces, and
in Qatar, where a large US military base and a Turkish contingent
protect the Emir Tamin bin Hamad al Thani.
A Gulf without mercenaries?
It is pretty clear that without foreign assistance, or foreign
manpower to wage wars or grant security at home, all of the
countries in the Persian Gulf would have a hard time surviving a
turbulent region. None of these anti-democratic monarchies that
still benefit from the post-colonial partition and spheres of
influence would not resist a single minute in case of a popular
uprising. Their power lies on the persuasive sound of money, until
oil has a value that is. Money can buy them weapons, soldiers for
hire, training and security. But to think that they can use it to
wage wars abroad against foreign enemies is definitely a risky
gamble.