RUSSIA’S HANDS ON THE MIDDLE EAST
Vladimir Putin
Russia
is the only superpower currently capable of influencing events in
the Middle East. Moscow’s rise was a direct consequence of
Washington’s retreat from direct military involvement in the
region. During his 8 years at the White House, US President Barack
Obama’s priority has been an exit strategy from the thorny mess he
had inherited from George W. Bush. However, this has paved the way
for Russia’s rise in the Middle East.
Regardless of the international sanctions that followed events in
Crimea and Ukraine, in 2015 Moscow decided to intervene in support
of Syrian President Bashar al Assad and rescued him from what
seemed an inevitable military defeat. A game-changing intervention
that now has everyone look up to Russia for a solution out of the
Syrian quagmire. It is Vladimir Putin that decides who can sit
around a negotiations table in Astana. It is for Moscow to decide
which Islamic factions to invite, whether Erdogan’s Turkey or
Rouhani’s Iran can participate and relegate the US, the British
and the French to mere observers. And it is once again Putin that
has decided to exclude the US-backed Kurdish-dominated Syrian
Democratic Forces to appease Ankara. And yes, does anyone remember
the UN? Guess what, they’re basically irrelevant.
Russia has managed to achieve what the US failed to do. The Middle
East is not interested in democratic principles, but on stability
achieved through the show of force. Moscow has proven to be
willing to exercise its might and this has been appreciated across
the entire region.
The Persian Gulf countries
The Gulf countries have always been traditional US allies.
However, when they perceived the US retreat as a threat to their
stability, they got closer to Russia. Even Saudi Arabia went as
far as reaching a deal on oil prices with Moscow at the G20
meeting in Hangzhou, in China, in September 2016. What the Saudis
fear the most in Russia’s favorable stance towards Iran, the Shia
and, as a consequence, the Tehran-backed Houthi rebellion Yemen.
The house of Saud is concerned about a Shia sphere of influence
stretching from Lebanon to Iran, and which includes Syria and
Iraq. The only way out of this nightmare is a deal with Moscow and
a close relationship with Turkey. Riyadh and Ankara both share an
enmity against the Shia, although they have different views when
the Muslim Brotherhood is brought up.
Iran
Russia and Iran are presently allied in support of Assad’s regime
and in fighting Islamic terrorism in Syria and Iraq. Abu Bakr al
Baghdadi’s terrorists are Sunni, and this is the basis of the
strange military alliance between Moscow and Tehran. Shia
volunteers are fighting both in Syria and Iraq, while Iranian
Pasdarans and Lebanese Hezbollah are helping Assad out. Since
August 2016, the Iranians have granted Russian fighter jets the
use of the Hamadan airbase for their interventions in Syria.
The axis has been favored by the election of a moderate president
like Hassan Rouhani in Iran. He was able to overcome religious
incompatibilities and improve economic ties. Since the end of the
embargo, Iran has increasingly purchased Russian weapons,
including the S300 long range surface-to-air missiles, and has
seen trade increase by 80% in 2016. From 1.4 billion dollars in
2014, exchanges have reached 10 billion last year. Bilateral deals
have also been signed in the financial sector, including banking
and the use of national currencies. The Russians will also provide
assistance in offshore drilling, as Gazprom and the Iranian
Central Oil Field Company have signed two exploration agreements
at the end of 2015. Iran might also join Russian-led Eurasian
Economic Union.
The Russo-Iranian partnership is hence political, military and
economic. Such a broad relationship is part of a long term
strategy. Donald Trump’s election and his critical stance towards
the deal on the Iranian nuclear program could provide another
boost to the ties between Moscow and Tehran.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Turkey
Until a few months ago, Turkey was hostile to the Syrian regime
and supported the armed opposition trying to topple Assad. By
doing so, they had colluded with ISIS and gone as far as downing a
Russian jet. Now, in an unprecedented twist of events, Turkey is
once again at peace with Russia and is not against Assad staying
in power anymore. What is more important for Vladimir Putin is not
Erdogan per se, but the fact that Turkey is the biggest army in
the region and a “rogue” NATO member. On the other hand, the Ottos
want to prevent any form of Kurdish autonomy in Syria, and this
can only be avoided by dealing with the Russians. If this means
Assad will have to stay in power, the Turks will simply have to
bite the bullet.
Egypt
Russia was very close to Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 60s, and this
is one of the reasons why the Egyptian president was toppled in
1970 and Cairo fell under the US sphere of influence. When the
Arab Spring came about and Mohamed Morsi rose to power with the
tacit approval of the United States, the Russian sat and waited.
Their patience paid off when Abdel Fattah al Sisi ousted Morsi and
a renewed phase opened in the relationship with the Russians.
Moscow is playing the Egyptian card in Libya, where both countries
support general Khalifa Haftar, and in Syria, where Cairo has been
invited to take part in the Astana round of negotiations. Egypt
was, together with Russia, one of the countries that voted against
a French-backed UN Security Council resolution critical of Bashar
al Assad. At the same time, Egypt re-opened its embassy in
Damascus.
To seal the renewed collaboration, joint military exercises that
involved 15 Russian fighter jets and helicopters and 600 troops
were held on Egyptian soil in October 2016. The last time Russians
carried out a joint military exercise with the Egyptians was in
1972. After that the Russian military advisors were kicked out by
then President Anwar Sadat.
Egypt plays a key role in Putin’s strategy. It’s the Middle East’s
most populated country, it has a strong military willing to get
involved in neighboring Libya, it controls the Suez canal and
could, as in the past, concede its military bases to Moscow. To
this effect, ongoing negotiations involve the possibility of
re-opening the Sidi Barrani military base to Russian troops. After
all, both countries share a common enemy: Islamic terrorism. Egypt
fights it off in the Sinai, Russia in Syria.
The two countries have also strengthened their economic ties:
Egypt has joined the Eurasian Economic Union, a series of
bilateral deals have been signed and transactions are carried out
using the Egyptian pound to the detriment of the US dollar.
Although Egypt remains, after Israel, the biggest recipient of US
aid, the Russians will continue to gain ground.
Israel
Russia’s military intervention in Syria has brought Moscow and Tel
Aviv closer. The two countries have a direct line of communication
to prevent incidents over Syrian airspace. When Israeli fighters
strike against the Hezbollah, they do so with Russian consent.
While Israel might not like the axis between Russia and Iran, it
also wants to continue operating beyond its borders. And the only
way to do so is to talk to the Russians, the region’s new
powerbroker.
Like several of its neighbors, Tel Aviv would rather have Assad in
power than hand Syria over to Islamic terror. And once the Syrian
crisis is over, the Palestinian issue will resurface and Russia
will have to be part of the solution. Moscow has traditionally
sided with the Palestinians, although the Kremlin will not
antagonize the Israelis as part of their strategy to affect the US
influence in the region. Israel and Russia might find a common
ground to collaborate, as Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow in
March 2017 shows.
Khalifa Benqasim Haftar
Libya
Russia has openly stepped in in Libya alongside Egypt and in
support of General Khalifa Haftar. Haftar is considered the
strongman in the current Libyan scenario. This pits, at least in
theory, Russia against the UN Security Council’s decision to side
with PM Fayez al Sarraj. And while Moscow is ready to support
Haftar on the ground, al Sarraj met with Russian officials. Once
again, Russia is keeping all options open and has cast its eyes on
a potential naval base in the Mediterranean. After all, Russia
abstained from voting the UN-backed military intervention in Libya
in 2011. Moscow can claim to have played no role in the ousting of
Muammar Gaddafi and in the mayhem that followed.
Vladimir Putin’s role
Putin realized that a military intervention in Syrian would fill
the political and military void left by the US. Although Trump and
Putin can probably get along, Russia will never give up the
strategic role it has gained in the Middle East. After all, Trump
abeled as a “mistake” the US military intervention in Iraq and
Libya and has pointed to Russia as its main ally in the fight
against Islamic terrorism. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both
share a good dose of pragmatism when dealing with international
affairs, and they’re both nationalists. While Trump thinks about
America First, Putin is more interested in renewing Russian
imperialism. The former KGB operative is a nostalgic of the Soviet
Union, while it is unclear what Trumps wants from the US role in
the world.
Vladimir Putin’s support of the Syrian regime has triggered a
series of political and military gains. Russia’s shrewd politics
protects Assad and talks with Turkey; is allied to Iran, but
maintains good ties with Saudi Arabia; supports the Palestinians
while dealing with Israel; is in favor of Egypt without alienating
both the Saudis and the Turks; it doesn’t fight against the
US-backed Syrian Kurds, but leaves them out of the Astana peace
talks; sides with the Iranian Shia without fueling the unrest in
Sunni-led Gulf countries. The end result of this political
balancing act is Russia’s key role in the Middle East. A success
story, until now.
